Category: Marathon

  • Day 2 : The Microtheory of Innovative Entrepreneurship by William.J.Baumol

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    The Secret Superpower That Built the Modern World (And How We Can Get More of It)

    ​The Most Important Person You’ve Never Heard Of

    ​Take a look at the world around you. The smartphone in your pocket, the airplane overhead, the life-saving medicines in your cabinet. How did we get here? How did we leap from a world of horse-drawn carriages and telegraphs to one of instant global communication and unprecedented wealth? The easy answer is “technology” or “progress.” But that’s not the whole story. According to the late, great economist William J. Baumol, the real answer is a specific type of person—a hidden hero that the field of economics spent decades completely ignoring.

    ​For the longest time, mainstream economics had a massive blind spot. It had elegant theories for the “factors of production” like land, labor, and capital, but it had conveniently “glossed over the species” of the entrepreneur. This wasn’t just a simple mistake; it was a built-in feature of the system. Economics, in its quest to be a hard science, fell in love with things it could measure, predict, and plug into neat formulas. It favored “equilibrium models” that described a stable, predictable economy. But the true, game-changing entrepreneur is the enemy of equilibrium. Their entire reason for being is to “upset equilibrium,” to find holes in existing industries and create something new out of thin air. They are driven by messy, unpredictable, and deeply human forces like “clever ruses, ingenious schemes, brilliant innovations, charisma”. You can’t put charisma into a spreadsheet, so economics just pretended it didn’t exist.

    ​By ignoring this chaotic, creative force, economics was missing the primary engine of real-world change. It had a beautiful blueprint of the car but had completely forgotten to include the engine. This story is about rediscovering that engine. It’s about understanding the hidden force that is responsible for nearly all the massive leaps in human well-being and how we can get more of it.

    What’s Your Business Vibe? The Optimizer, The Copycat, or The Game-Changer?

    ​To understand this secret superpower, we first need to get our definitions straight. Baumol realized that we use the word “entrepreneur” to describe a lot of different people. He broke them down into distinct archetypes, each playing a vital role on the economic stage. Think of them as different business “vibes.”

    ​First, there’s The Optimizer, who is essentially a manager. This person’s mission is to take what already exists and make it more efficient. They are masters of process, analysis, and judgment, finding clever ways to make things better, faster, and cheaper. Their work is incredibly important for making businesses run smoothly, but as Baumol notes, it “brings, little new into being.” It is fundamentally “incremental work”.

    ​Next up is The Copycat, or what Baumol called the “replicative entrepreneur.” This is the person most of us think of when we hear “entrepreneur”: “anyone who starts a business, even if the business is doing something many others are doing”. They open a new pizza place in a town that already has nine. They start a marketing agency using proven techniques. They are essential for spreading good ideas and making them widely available, but they aren’t the ones inventing the concept of pizza or marketing.

    ​Finally, there’s the hero of Baumol’s story: The Game-Changer, or the “innovative entrepreneur.” This is the rare individual who doesn’t just play the game better; they invent a whole new one. This is the person responsible for the “revolutionary growth in an economy”. Baumol points to the perfect example: the McDonald brothers invented a brilliant system for a fast, high-profit hamburger stand. But it was Ray Kroc, the innovative entrepreneur, who saw how that system could be “endlessly replicated” to build a global empire, changing the way the world eats.

    It’s tempting to see these as separate roles, but they actually form a powerful, interdependent ecosystem. A healthy economy needs all three. The Game-Changer has the breakthrough idea. The Copycats swarm in, turning that niche invention into a mainstream industry. And for decades after, armies of Optimizers work tirelessly to refine it, making it more affordable and accessible for everyone. Progress isn’t about just one of them; it’s about the seamless handoff from one to the next.

    ​Why Tidying Your Desk Won’t 10x Your Life: The Myth of Small Tweaks

    ​Our modern culture is obsessed with optimization, productivity hacks, and the magic of marginal gains. We’re told that tiny, 1% improvements will compound into massive success. Baumol’s work provides a stunning reality check. For decades, conventional economics focused on a similar idea: fixing “market failures” like monopolies, pollution, or poor infrastructure to make the economy more efficient. But according to Baumol’s analysis of multiple studies, if we could magically fix every single one of these problems and create a state of “perfect competition,” the total boost to GDP would be a shockingly small—perhaps 1% at most. This is the economic equivalent of tidying your desk. It feels good, it looks better, but it is not going to fundamentally change your life.

    ​Now, contrast that with the real story of economic growth. Between 1900 and 2000, the U.S. economy grew by an incredible 583%. Japan’s grew by a staggering 1653%. These numbers are not the result of small tweaks. This kind of explosive progress didn’t happen because we got slightly better at shoeing horses or a little more efficient at farming with ox plows. It happened because Game-Changers unleashed “productive innovations” that completely rewrote the rules of civilization. These innovations led to a doubling of life expectancy and a historic victory over famine and poverty.

    ​And who were these Game-Changers? They weren’t giant, faceless corporations. Baumol points out that inventions of “enormous significance” like the airplane, the personal computer, the helicopter, FM radio, and the pacemaker were all the product of “small-scale innovators”. In fact, a 2003 study by the U.S. Small Business Administration concluded that a patent from a small firm is far more likely than one from a large firm to be in the “top 1 percent” of commercially impactful innovations. This economic history serves as a powerful critique of our modern obsession with marginal gains. While we are busy celebrating the 1% tweak, we may be neglecting the very environment needed to produce the 500% leap.

    ​Geniuses or Gangsters? How Society Chooses Its Entrepreneurs

    ​Here we arrive at Baumol’s most profound and startling idea. He redefines an entrepreneur not as a noble business-builder, but simply as one of those “persons who are ingenious and creative in finding ways that add to their own wealth, power, and prestige”. This is a neutral definition. Ingenuity and creativity are just tools, a superpower that can be used for good or for ill. An individual can use their creative genius to invent a cure for a disease, or they can use that same genius to build an organized crime network. Both are acts of entrepreneurship under this definition.

    ​So what determines whether a society gets geniuses or gangsters? Baumol’s answer is simple: the “rules of the game”. The system of rewards, incentives, laws, and cultural values that a society puts in place will channel that raw entrepreneurial talent toward either “productive” or “unproductive” ends. History is filled with dramatic stories of how these rules have shaped destiny.

    ​Imagine being a Roman inventor who creates a type of unbreakable glass. You bring it to the Emperor Tiberius, expecting fame and fortune. Instead, the emperor has you executed on the spot, fearing your invention would “reduce the value of gold to mud”. The rule of the game was clear: do not threaten the existing power structure. The result? A brilliant innovation was lost, and a powerful disincentive was sent to any other potential inventors.

    ​Or consider medieval China. By 1280, it was a technological wonderland, having invented paper, gunpowder, and sophisticated water clocks. It should have dominated the world. But it stagnated. Why? Because its “rules of the game”—a grueling system of state examinations—pushed all of its “best and brightest” people into becoming government officials. The most prestigious path was not to create wealth, but to get a position where you could extract it from others through corruption and rent-seeking. The smartest people were incentivized to become unproductive parasites on the system, not productive engines of it.

    ​It was only with the coming of the Industrial Revolution in the West that the rules finally changed. A new respect for free markets and openness to ideas meant that for the first time, industrialists and inventors were allowed to “amass wealth”. As Baumol argues, it is “no accident” that this new respect for productive entrepreneurship coincided with the most tremendous economic growth in human history. The lesson is clear: entrepreneurial talent is always present in a society. The question is whether your rules guide it toward building new wonders or just finding clever ways to take from others.

    ​The Unlikely Duo: Why Startups and Megacorps Need Each Other

    ​The popular story of innovation is a “David vs. Goliath” tale: the brilliant, scrappy startup against the big, slow, evil corporation. Baumol’s work reveals a more complex and interesting reality. It’s less of a battle and more of a symbiotic partnership, like a great songwriter and a global pop star.

    ​Big companies, as Baumol notes, are generally “not good at the early stages of innovation”. True breakthroughs require “wild creativity, leaps of faith, and irrational amounts of time spent on superficially unpromising ideas”. This kind of chaotic, high-risk environment is toxic to a large, established organization built on predictable quarterly returns. But it’s the natural habitat of a small, nimble startup. They are the genius songwriters, toiling away in the garage, crafting the next big hit.

    ​However, those small firms “usually don’t have the resources to roll them out across society”. A brilliant invention is useless if it stays in the garage. This is where the megacorps come in. They are the global pop stars. They have the manufacturing power, the distribution networks, the marketing budgets, and the global reach to take that hit song and turn it into a worldwide phenomenon. They do this when they “buy them out or license their idea” and then properly develop it for public use. A healthy innovation economy isn’t about choosing between startups and corporations; it’s about ensuring the “market” between them—the process of acquisitions and licensing—is fluid and fair, allowing the song to get from the songwriter to the stadium.

    ​The Takeaway: How to Build a World Full of Game-Changers

    ​The most empowering lesson from William Baumol’s work is that massive, world-changing innovation is not a random lightning strike. It is the predictable outcome of a system designed to produce it. Creating a society that fosters Game-Changers is not a mystery; it’s a choice. It requires setting the right “rules of the game.”

    ​Baumol identifies the key ingredients. On the one hand, there are the passive foundations: things like strong property rights, the enforceability of contracts, and robust patent protection. These ensure that inventors and entrepreneurs have the confidence that their hard work and brilliant ideas won’t simply be stolen. On the other hand, there’s an active role for government, particularly in financing the kind of basic, fundamental research that is too risky or long-term for the private sector to undertake on its own.

    ​Ultimately, it comes down to aligning incentives. As the historian Eric Hobsbawm once wrote, “It is often assumed that an economy of private enterprise has an automatic bias towards innovation, but this is not so. It has a bias only towards profit”. The genius of a successful society is its ability to harness that powerful, unchangeable bias for profit and aim it squarely at the goal of human progress. We do that by setting the right rules, building the right institutions, and celebrating the right heroes: the Game-Changers who don’t just make a market, but make a world.

    Signing Off

    Manivannan MP..

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  • Day 1 of 50 Days Economy Marathon

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    Day 1 : Lords of Finance by Liaqat Ahmed

    The Money Men Who Broke the World: A Story of Gold, Ideology, and the Great Depression

    ​The Gods of Gold

    ​In the decade that followed the Great War, the world looked to a small group of men as its financial saviors. They were the heads of the world’s four most powerful central banks: Montagu Norman of the Bank of England, Benjamin Strong of the New York Federal Reserve, Hjalmar Schacht of the German Reichsbank, and Émile Moreau of the Banque de France. These were not mere bankers; in an age of uncertainty, they were regarded as “sages,” their every utterance capable of shaping the destiny of nations. Their shared mission was a noble one: to reconstruct the global financial system shattered by four years of brutal conflict. Yet, these “lords of finance,” entrusted with rebuilding the world, would instead preside over its greatest peacetime economic collapse: the Great Depression.

    ​At the heart of their collective worldview was a single, powerful idea: the gold standard. To them, it was not just a policy but an article of faith. Montagu Norman, the most influential of the four, held a “rigid, almost theological belief” in the standard as the bedrock of global order and prosperity. This belief system was simple and, for a time, seemingly effective. Under the gold standard, a nation’s currency was directly tied to the amount of gold it held in its vaults. A government could only issue as much money as it could back with physical gold, a mechanism that was thought to instill discipline and prevent reckless spending. Before the war, this system appeared to work, facilitating international trade and fostering growth. It was the undisputed rulebook for the global economy, a promise of stability in a complex world.

    ​The problem, however, was that the world these men sought to rebuild was fundamentally different from the one that had existed before 1914. Their unwavering adherence to this old rulebook would prove to be their fatal flaw. Their belief in the gold standard was so absolute that it blinded them to the new and dangerous realities of the post-war era. It transformed a tool of economic policy into an inflexible dogma. This intellectual rigidity, this faith-based approach to a world drowning in unprecedented problems, set the stage for the catastrophe to come. The very wisdom for which they were celebrated—their commitment to the “financial prudence” of the gold standard—was, in fact, their greatest blind spot, a recurring historical irony where the experts of one era become prisoners of its outdated ideas.

    ​A World in Debt and a Disastrous Idea

    ​The world that emerged from the rubble of World War I was a world drowning in debt. The warring nations had collectively borrowed an astonishing $200 billion, a sum equal to half of their total economic output. On top of this, the victorious Allies imposed a crippling reparations bill on a defeated Germany, demanding payments equivalent to roughly 100 percent of its entire pre-war economy. Faced with this impossible burden, Germany’s only option was to print money. The result was a social and economic cataclysm. By 1923, German hyperinflation had spiraled out of control; prices were doubling every few days, and the German mark became worthless. The life savings of the entire middle class were wiped out, destroying the social fabric of the nation and planting seeds of resentment that would bear bitter fruit a decade later.

    ​Horrified by this chaos, the central bankers concluded that the only path back to stability was a swift return to the gold standard. But applying this rigid rulebook to a broken world was like forcing a splint onto a compound fracture. To rejoin the standard, nations faced two painful choices: deflation, which meant shrinking the money supply and causing mass unemployment, or devaluation, which meant officially reducing the currency’s value against gold. Britain, under Chancellor of the Exchequer Winston Churchill, chose the path of deflation, fixing the pound to gold at its high, pre-war value. The decision was disastrous. It made British goods too expensive on the world market, crippling exports and condemning the nation to a decade of high interest rates and unemployment.

    ​France, in contrast, made a shrewder choice. It chose devaluation, setting the franc at a relatively low rate against gold. This made French products cheap and competitive, fueling an economic boom and causing gold to flood into its vaults. The consequences of these divergent paths revealed the fatal flaw in the revived system. The gold standard, once a facilitator of shared growth, had become a brutal, “zero-sum game”. France’s success came at the direct expense of its neighbors; its devaluation effectively “exported unemployment to Britain and Germany”. Rather than fostering cooperation, the system bred hostility and economic warfare. The apparent “umbrella of stability,” as Liaquat Ahamed argues, had become a “straitjacket,” choking the life out of weaker economies for the benefit of the strong. This dynamic had profound political consequences. The relentless economic pressure placed on Germany, first by reparations and then by the punishing logic of the gold standard, created a fertile ground for extremism. The decision to enforce massive debts, which seemed “financially prudent” to the bankers in London, Paris, and New York, proved to be “politically very dumb,” paving the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler.

    ​The Great Crash and the Golden Anchor

    ​By the late 1920s, even the “lords of finance” could see that their reconstructed system was dangerously unstable. They fretted over an “overheating US stock market,” excessive German borrowing, and a deepening recession in Britain. In an attempt to manage the growing bubble in America, Benjamin Strong’s New York Fed made a fateful move. In 1928, it raised its interest rate to 5 percent. This single decision acted like a powerful global magnet, pulling the world’s limited supply of gold towards the United States. To prevent their own gold reserves from hemorrhaging across the Atlantic, other nations were forced to follow suit. Britain raised its rates, further dampening demand and creating more unemployment. Germany, already in recession, was compelled to raise its rates to a crippling 7.5 percent. The gold standard acted as a perfect transmission mechanism for this economic poison, forcing the entire world to import America’s monetary policy, regardless of their own desperate local conditions. These rate hikes choked off credit and pushed Europe into a downturn well before the American market even crashed.

    ​Meanwhile, the Fed’s move failed to achieve its domestic goal. The US stock market, detached from any underlying value, continued its frenzied ascent, nearly doubling in just 15 months through 1928 and 1929. When the inevitable crash came in the autumn of 1929, the market’s value was nearly cut in half. An initial, forceful response from the Fed and a group of private banks prevented a total collapse, but this intervention was eased too soon. A second, more devastating lurch downwards began, this time pulling the real economy of jobs and production into the vortex.

    ​It was at this moment that the gold standard revealed its truly “perverse effect”. In a global crisis, the rational response for any country is to stimulate its economy. But the rules of the gold standard demanded the exact opposite. As economies weakened, investors sought the safety of gold, causing it to flow out of struggling nations. To protect their dwindling reserves, central banks were forced to raise interest rates, making it even harder for businesses to borrow and invest. This locked them into a self-destructive, pro-cyclical trap, forcing them to bleed their own economies to save their currencies. Capital increasingly flowed away from the countries that needed it most, like Britain and Germany, and towards those that already had plenty, namely the United States and France. The system had become a “winner-takes-all” machine that punished the weak and rewarded the strong—the precise opposite of what was needed to fight a global depression. The gold standard was no longer an umbrella of stability; it was a golden anchor tied to a sinking world economy, pulling everyone down together.

    ​Living in the “Dark Ages”

    ​The year 1931 marked the point of no return, the moment when a severe global recession metastasized into The Great Depression. The currency crises and bank runs, all exacerbated by the rigid demands of the gold standard, kicked off a “vicious cycle of deflationary psychology”. This was more than just an economic downturn; it was a collapse of confidence in the future itself. When people expect prices to keep falling, they stop spending. Why buy something today if it will be cheaper tomorrow? When businesses expect profits to keep falling, they stop investing and lay off workers. This collective paralysis grinds the entire economy to a halt, and the expectation of decline becomes a devastating, self-fulfilling prophecy.

    ​In the United States, the richest nation on earth, the statistics were apocalyptic. Between its peak in 1929 and its low in 1932, the stock market lost an astonishing 90 percent of its value. Industrial production was cut by a quarter, and private investment halved. Unemployment soared to 20 percent and kept climbing. Steel mills that were not shut down operated at just 12 percent of their capacity. Car plants went from making 20,000 vehicles a day to just two thousand. A quarter of all banks had gone under, and with property values plummeting, half of all American homeowners had defaulted on their mortgages. The human toll was staggering: “34 million men, women and children out of a total population of 120 million had no apparent source of income”.

    ​The crisis was so profound, so utterly disorienting, that it felt like a civilizational collapse. When a journalist asked the great economist John Maynard Keynes if there had ever been anything like it in history, he gave a chilling reply: “Yes. It was called the Dark Ages, and it lasted four hundred years”. His comment captured the pervasive sense of hopelessness. The foundational promise of capitalism—that free markets, guided by rational principles like the gold standard, would self-regulate and lead to ever-greater prosperity—had been shattered. The system had not self-corrected; it had self-destructed. To many, it seemed that Karl Marx had been right all along in his prediction that capitalism would collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. This profound crisis of faith created an ideological vacuum, opening the door to radical alternatives that promised to solve capitalism’s apparent failure, from Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal to the far more brutal solutions offered by fascism and communism.

    ​The Man Who Threw Away the Rulebook

    ​When Franklin D. Roosevelt assumed the presidency in early 1933, he inherited a nation on the brink of total collapse. The New York Times reported that the nation’s capital felt like “a beleaguered capital in wartime”. Twenty-eight states had already shut down their entire banking systems. Roosevelt understood that the old rules had failed and that only bold, decisive action could save the country. His response was swift, radical, and aimed directly at the twin hearts of the crisis: the collapse of the banking system and the suffocating grip of the gold standard.

    ​His first act was to change the psychological narrative. The old story was one of helplessness, of human suffering as a necessary price for adhering to the abstract principle of “sound money.” FDR replaced it with a story of action. He declared a five-day, nationwide “bank holiday,” shutting down every bank in America to stop the panic. He then pushed the Emergency Banking Act through Congress, which allowed only solvent banks to reopen and, crucially, had the federal government guarantee their deposits. The effect was electric. This single move restored faith in the system almost overnight. Terrified citizens who had been hoarding cash under their mattresses began to put it back into the newly secured banks.

    ​His next move was even more revolutionary. Against the advice of nearly every orthodox economist and banker, FDR broke the “golden chains.” He suspended all gold exports and effectively took the United States off the gold standard. He accepted legislation that gave him the power to issue $3 billion in new currency without any gold backing and to devalue the dollar by as much as 50 percent. Roosevelt correctly understood what the old guard had failed to see: the gold standard was not the cure; it was the disease. The orthodox view held that restoring the standard would bring back confidence and then prosperity. FDR flipped this logic on its head. He believed the key to recovery was getting prices to rise—that is, creating inflation—which was impossible under the gold standard’s rigid rules. His model was to first break from gold, then stimulate the economy, and only then would real prosperity return.

    ​The results vindicated his radicalism. The stock market rebounded, and the economy began its long, slow climb out of the abyss. The historical record is unequivocal: “Breaking with the dead hand of the gold standard was the key to economic revival”. Countries that abandoned the standard—Britain in 1931, the US in 1933, and France in 1935—began to recover. Those that clung to it continued to suffer. FDR’s true genius was not just in changing the policy, but in changing the entire paradigm. He demonstrated that in a crisis, the government’s primary duty was to its citizens, not to an outdated economic theory.

    ​Lessons from the Lords of Finance

    ​The story of the “lords of finance” and their role in the Great Depression is more than a historical curiosity; it is a timeless cautionary tale. The central lesson, as Liaquat Ahamed’s work makes clear, is a powerful warning against placing “too much faith in individual bankers and their rigid adherence to outdated ideas”. The gold standard, once the most powerful symbol of the self-regulating market beloved by classical economists, was exposed as a “barbarous relic” and a “fetish” that, rather than leading to a promised land of peace and prosperity, brought the world to its knees. It demonstrated that what is presented as financial prudence can have catastrophic human consequences.

    ​This history compels us to ask a critical question: What is today’s “gold standard”? What widely accepted economic belief, institution, or policy looks good on paper but may be acting as a financial “straitjacket” on the modern world? The provided analysis suggests the European single currency, the Euro, as a potential parallel. Like the gold standard, the Euro is a supranational system that removes a country’s ability to control its own currency and exchange rate. To remain in the system, member nations can be forced to adopt painful austerity measures—slashing spending and raising taxes during a recession—that are dictated by the rules of the union rather than by their own domestic needs. The brutal austerity imposed on countries like Greece in the 2010s echoes the way Britain and Germany were forced to sacrifice their economies in the 1920s to protect their currencies.

    ​The enduring legacy of this story is the fundamental conflict between rigid international systems and the sovereign needs of individual nations. The gold standard demanded that Britain accept mass unemployment to defend the pound and that Germany suffer deflation to pay its debts. In both cases, the international rulebook required policies that were devastating at home. This highlights the ultimate moral dimension of economic policy. Decisions framed in the abstract language of financial stability and prudence are never merely technical; they have profound and immediate effects on the lives of millions. The enforcement of German reparations and the adherence to the gold standard were not just policy errors; they were moral failures that led to immense suffering, social collapse, and ultimately, political catastrophe. The final, powerful lesson from the age of the Lords of Finance is that any economic system that places abstract principles above human well-being is destined to fail.

    Signing off

    Manivannan MP..

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